In Path of Exile 2, using an Orb of Chance is a gamble with significant risks and variable odds, depending on the rarity of the unique items and the base item chosen. The general goal of the Orb is to upgrade a normal item into a magic, rare, or unique item. However, there is a substantial chance that the item may be destroyed instead of upgraded, reflecting the high-risk nature of this currency.

The success rate for obtaining a unique item with an Orb of Chance varies widely based on the rarity tier of the specific unique being sought. Commonly, the chance to get the highest-tier unique items is extremely low, often estimated at odds of one in several hundred attempts or even worse for the rarest tier. Mid-tier uniques may appear in the range of one in a few thousand uses, while lower-tier or more common unique drops have higher chances but are still rare in the context of all chancing attempts. Many players resort to poe 2 currency trading to increase their stockpile and take more shots at rare targets.

When an Orb is applied, the game first determines if the item will survive the attempt. There is a high failure rate where the normal item may be destroyed instead of upgraded. If it survives, the item’s rarity is then rolled—magic, rare, or unique—based on predefined probabilities. The unique roll takes into account the specific base item used, as only bases with corresponding unique variants are eligible for unique outcomes. Further complexity comes from unique items that have differing drop rates depending on how rare or sought-after they are, with top-tier uniques being very scarce.

Notably, the base item's item level and whether it aligns with its unique counterpart’s requirements impact the successful transformation. Some player reports suggest that about 200 to 300 Orb of Chance attempts might be needed on average to produce a desirable unique, but this can vary drastically due to randomness and the specific target unique. To offset the grind, some players prefer to buy poe 2 currency directly and funnel it into large-scale chancing projects.

In practice, if the unique has very high market value or significant gameplay impact, players often consider the risk worthwhile. However, many Orb of Chance users never obtain a unique in dozens or hundreds of tries, demonstrating the underlying randomness and frustration that can accompany this mechanic.

The Orb of Chance offers a thrilling but uncertain path towards powerful gear. Understanding that unique drops are rare and failure rates are high helps players approach its use with realistic expectations. Effective Orb use focuses on bases with valuable unique options, accepting that it remains a gamble more than a reliable crafting method. The rarity hierarchy and failure rate are key factors influencing these odds, making the Orb of Chance both an exciting and frustrating element within Path of Exile 2’s gameplay dynamics.